NEXT PM ELECTION IN INDIA 2024

Introduction

The world’s largest democracy, India, is gearing up for a pivotal moment in its political history the PM election in India 2024. Scheduled to be held in the spring of 2024, this election is expected to have far-reaching consequences for the nation’s political landscape, economic policies, and social development. In this article, we will delve into the key aspects of Indian Election 2024, the major players, issues, and what’s at stake for the country.

India’s electoral process is a mammoth undertaking, involving over 900 million eligible voters. The general elections are held every five years to elect Members of Parliament (MPs) who, in turn, form the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s bicameral parliament. The ruling party or coalition that secures a majority in the Lok Sabha forms the government, and the leader of the majority party becomes the Prime Minister.

Background – General Election result of 2019

In the 2019 Indian general elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, secured a significant victory. The BJP won 303 seats out of 545, which is the majority needed to form the government on its own. This was a substantial increase from the 2014 elections when the BJP won 282 seats.

The Indian National Congress (INC), the main opposition party, won 52 seats, while other regional and smaller parties collectively won the remaining seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, secured a total of 353 seats.

It may be noted that these numbers are approximations and may not represent the exact results, as they can vary slightly due to alliances and by-elections that occurred after the general elections.

Key Players

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The incumbent party led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. BJP is known for its strong nationalist and right-wing stance.

Indian National Congress (INC): One of India’s oldest political parties, INC is the main opposition party, led by Mallikaarjun Kharge.

Other Regional and National Parties: Numerous other national and regional parties would play a crucial role in Indian politics. Leaders like Mamata Banerjee (Trinamool Congress), Arvind Kejriwal (Aam Aadmi Party), Maya Wati (Bahujan Samaj Party), M. K. Stalin (DMK), K. Palaniswami (AIADMK), Akhilesh Yadav (Samajwadi Party), Tejashvi Yadav (RJD), Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (Shiv Sena) and Sharad Pawar (Nationalist Congress Party) and others have significant influence in their respective states.

Key Issues

Several pressing issues are likely to dominate the 2024 General Election :

Unemployment: According to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) for July, the overall unemployment rate in India is 7.95 percent as of July 2023. The consistently high rate of unemployment bothers the youth but the government defends itself by giving justification for employment generation through the ‘Make in India’ drive and other direct employment in government departments and CPSUs.

Inflation: High prices of daily-use items cause dissatisfaction among a large section of the population. Petrol, diesel, and gas cylinder prices are at an all-time highs. Though the government has reduced gas cylinder prices by Rs. 200, it seems that this step is not enough to satisfy the general public.

Economic Recovery: After GST, Demonetization, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy of India has been facing significant challenges to stabilize the economy.   The next government will have to focus on recovery, job creation, and economic growth.

Healthcare Infrastructure: The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in India’s healthcare system. Voters will be looking for a government that can strengthen healthcare infrastructure and ensure better access to healthcare services.

Agriculture Reforms: The ongoing farmer protests over agricultural reforms will continue to be a crucial issue, with the government’s response likely to impact voting patterns. The government came up with 3 ‘Agriculture Laws’ but due to the vast unacceptability of farmers, these laws had to be withdrawn.

National Security: National security concerns, including border disputes and terrorism, will be important issues in the context of India’s relations with neighboring countries.

Social Issues: Women’s safety, education, and social justice issues will also influence voter sentiment.

Hindutva and Nationalism: No party can ignore Hindutva and Nationalism to attract a large section of society towards it.

Anti-Incumbency: As the NDA government will be in power for 10 years, it has to face the anti-incumbency factors at a big level if Modi’s magic doesn’t work.

Caste Politics: Like in every election, caste is going to play an important factor in the election of 2024 in India. As majority of the Indian population belongs to OBCs, each party is going to lure them with no limit.

Strategy of BJP and opposition parties

Opposition parties would raise issues like high unemployment, inflation, farmer issues, failure of the ‘Make in India’ drive, the government’s stand on the Manipur issue, relations with China, Agniveer Scheme, Old Pension Scheme (OPS), Adani issue, the promise of two crore jobs per year and double income of farmers by 2022, etc.

On the other hand, BJP would not only counter the opposition points but also showcase its image as only Pro-Hinduism party raising issues like Saver of Sanatan Dharma, Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, Mahakal and Kashi Vishwanath Corridors, Successful organization of G20, Teen Talaak, Abolition of Article 370, Nationalism, Infrastructure Development through National Highways, initiator of women reservation in Indian politics with slogan Sabka Saath-Sabka Vikas-Sabka Vishwas-Sabka Prayas.

Charges of corruption will be reminded from both sides with the savior of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Scheduled Castes (SCs) & Scheduled Tribes (STs).

Effect of Bharat Jodo Yatra

With the aim to unite India; to come together and strengthen the nation, the Bharat Jodo Yatra began on 7th September from Kanyakumari and passed through 12 states, culminating in Jammu and Kashmir – spanning a distance of 4000+ KMs over about 136 days.

The Yatra received an overwhelming response; lakhs of people accompanied by Congress leaders had joined the movement to raise their voices against the economic, social, and political issues that are dividing the nation. The Yatra addressed issues of rampant unemployment & inflation, the politics of hate and division, and the over-centralization of the political system.

A notable surge in approval ratings among the people after Bharat Jodo Yatra was seen for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and he also emerged as a strong contender alongside PM Modi.

People have started to listen to his views about India, Government, Democracy, and future politics patiently. He has emerged as an educated leader who interacts with people, listens to their grievances, and faces the press without fear and very regularly. He also accepts the mistakes of past Congress-led governments without a hick.

Tough Challenges for Brand Modi

The Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has dominated almost every political discourse in the country ever since it came to power in 2014 owing to his charismatic personality. Setting and controlling narratives, the party has left the opposition parties completely outfoxed in public debates. But this status quo looks threatened now. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and then the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), many political developments thereafter seem to have pushed towards a serious re-thinking in the party. The BJP is visibly humbled after its recent back-to-back defeats in the intensely fought assembly elections in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh.

The 4,000-km Bharat Jodo Yatra is believed to have not just re-energized the Congress cadres but also raised the profile of Lok Sabha MP Rahul Gandhi among the Opposition leaders. 26-party alliance I.N.D.I.A. to challenge the Modi-led NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha election seems to be united at present which is certainly not good news for the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

INDIA alliance has succeeded in the inclusion of some major parties in the alliance viz., INC, AAP, CPI, JDU, DMK, NCP (Sharad Pawar), JDU, RJD, PDP, RLD, Shiv Sena (Thackeray’s), SP and JMM etc. which are big national and state parties.

BJP-led NDA also showed its strength by putting up 38 political parties under the banner of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but few major political parties like Shiv Sena (Thackeray’s), Shiromani Akali Dal, JDU, TDP, AIADMK, MDMK, DMDK, PDP have already left the NDA having major chunk in state politics.

Though the BJP has tried to show it has more allies on its side (38 in comparison to 26 of the Opposition), it does not bring much substance on the ground. The 37 ally political parties of the BJP had only won less than 30 seats in the 2019 parliamentary election, 16 alliance parties could not win even a single seat and at least nine of them did not participate in the elections. One of the key takeaways from the raging battle for alliances and political narratives reveals that brand Modi alone would not ensure a 2024 election victory for the BJP.

Is the BJP in trouble?

It is now evident that the 2024 election is shaping up into a war of alliances, Modi, who has maintained a studied silence on several key issues including the violence in Manipur, and no concrete solution for unemployment and inflation, was quick to dismiss the formation of INDIA, claiming how the BJP-led alliance is a better prescription for power. Asserting that the opposition’s INDIA stands for dynasty, corruption, and political opportunism, whereas NDA stands for an aspirational India that looks 25 years ahead., PM Modi also said that INDIAN alliances have formed with negativity and cannot survive long.

The BJP has traditionally benefited in a triangular contest. As such, the opposition alliance’s idea of a one-to-one contest against the saffron party could be a real headache for the ruling party when it attempts a hat trick in 2024. But will it turn into ground reality a big question mark?

The prime ministerial candidates for the coalition governments have been decided after the elections in the past. The suspense over the opposition’s Prime Minister candidate will certainly get INDIA into NDA’s trap of “Modi vs Who”.   The INDIA alliance, which has 142 seats in the Lok Sabha 2019, has cleverly minted the name for itself, given the BJP using its nationalist rants and rhetoric as weapons to destroy its rivals.

In almost all elections whether it has been local civic bodies, State Assemblies, or parliamentary elections, the BJP has sought votes in the name of Modi in the past nine years. After, Bharat Jodo Yatra and the recent win of Congress in the assembly election led to a substantial shrink in the gap between the party and its leader substantially. Seeking votes in the name of NDA in place of Modi or other leaders in the forthcoming general election is going to be yet another first for the ruling party.

Role of Social Media

News channels and social media have a great role to play in developing perceptions about a political party and a leader. Social media nowadays has become a vital tool in the hands of the political parties in influencing the opinion of undecided voters and in giving the disinterested middle class a reason to go and vote. Politicians are increasingly using the new social media for campaigning, spreading or retrieving information, or contributing to rational and critical debate. Social media makes it easy for people to stay up to date on upcoming events, party schedules, and election agendas.

On the other side, social media has become an instrument for politicians that is utilized to create more noise and even a way to promote polarization. Social media is vastly utilized to condemn and criticize the opposition parties and the information is misrepresented by deceptive and incorrect facts. Social media requires a lot of spending to survive through advertising and only affluent parties can spend heavily that can influence the majority of the voter base. The spread of fake news on Social Media Platforms influences people’s preferences during the election.

At present, NDA seems to have an edge on this front but in recent times, tug-of-war has increased due to prompt replies of opposition parties through press briefings and through social media to answer any remarks of NDA’s spokespersons in which NDA is already mastered.

What’s at Stake?

The 2024 General Election is a critical juncture for India. The outcome will determine the nation’s trajectory for the next five years. A strong mandate for the ruling party could lead to the consolidation of their policies, while a shift in power could bring about new directions and priorities. It is an electoral test on Modi’s brand as a leader and the BJP’s core Hindu nationalist image versus the opposition secularism image.

Conclusion

India’s 2024 General Election is not just an event of national significance but one with global implications. As the world watches, the Indian electorate will have the responsibility of shaping their nation’s future. The results of this election will not only influence domestic policies but also have a bearing on India’s role in international affairs. It is a time for every Indian to exercise their democratic right and participate in the process that will chart the course of the nation for years to come.

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